Ballarat Synthetic R2

Global Turf Maiden Plate · 1200m · 3-Y-O, Maiden, Set Weights · Synthetic · jumps 2026-06-30 04:00 UTC · market 1.259538870

model confidence medium 0.42

#	horse	jockey	trainer	b	punters SP	live back	live lay	live LTP	model $	edge pp	EV %	suggest
1	Bohemian Star	John Allen	Vincent Malady	12	12.00	—	—	34.00	PE10.08	—	—	—
3	Dunnenkate Bro	Jake Duffy	Craig Weeding	4	15.00	—	—	580.00	PE21.36	—	—	—
4	Foxtrot Lad	Mitchell Aitken	Vincent Malady	9	9.50	—	—	32.00	PE7.63	—	—	—
9	Lady In Red	E Walsh	Shay Keating	15	31.00	—	—	580.00	PE46.46	—	—	—
11	Natural Event	Craig Newitt	Jody Thompson	2	41.00	—	—	200.00	PE50.83	—	—	—
2	Brilliant Bull Ant	Cory Parish	Olivia Osborne	14	26.00	—	—	580.00	PE46.46	—	—	—
5	Sibun	Alana Kelly	Mitchell Freedman	6	15.00	—	—	580.00	PE21.36	—	—	—
6	Sonic Surge	Billy Egan	Lloyd Kennewell	11	8.00	—	—	2.00	PE7.63	—	—	—
7	Apache Sunrise	Cian MacRedmond	Archie Alexander	3	5.00	—	—	580.00	PE4.48	—	—	—
10	Lovely Head	Jye McNeil	Mitchell Leek	8	51.00	—	—	—	PE74.00	—	—	—
12	Queens Of Vino	Teo Nugent	Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	13	9.50	—	—	7.73	PE10.08	—	—	—
14	Cairo Princess	Sarah Robbins	Jody Thompson	1	34.00	—	—	150.00	PE46.46	—	—	—
15	Kiss The King	Jye McNeil	Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	7	9.00	—	—	580.00	PE8.02	—	—	—

column glossary

confidence: The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
#: runner number assigned by punters.
horse: name (links out to punters.com.au).
jockey / trainer: connections; — if not yet known.
b: barrier (gate) number.
punters SP: final starting price from punters. — for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes.
live back: best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
live lay: best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
live LTP: last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair. — if nothing has traded yet.
model $: model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
edge pp: percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
EV %: expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
suggest: BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.

Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.