Kilcoy R8

Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now 0 - 55 Handicap · 1200m · 0 - 55, Handicap · Soft · jumps 2026-06-30 06:40 UTC · market 1.259538859

model confidence medium 0.44

#	horse	jockey	trainer	b	punters SP	live back	live lay	live LTP	model $	edge pp	EV %	suggest
4	Thief By Night	Isabel Jessop	Rod Hilton	5	7.50	15.50	70.00	14.00	PE7.92	+6.22	+77.4	BACK
7	Russian Ripper	Montanna Savva	Kevin Kemp	8	16.00	—	14.00	—	PE22.22	+1.97	+27.4	—
2	Bold As Brass	Jaden Lloyd	Paul Jenkins	16	7.50	—	—	3.90	PE7.92	—	—	—
17	Galactic Legend	Kayla Johnston	John Johnston	15	22.00	22.00	23.00	22.00	22.22	-0.02	-10.4	—
5	On The Target	Frederick Larson	Jim Murdoch	10	34.00	22.00	46.00	—	PE38.15	-0.66	-30.3	—
15	Li'l Rex	—	David Murphy	9	9.50	2.24	55.00	10.00	PE8.34	-30.54	-74.6	—
8	Amore Sirena	Stacey Callow	Brett Baker	6	11.00	1.13	—	10.50	PE10.48	-71.04	-89.3	—
6	Exostova	Archie McColm	Jimmy Downes	17	11.00	—	19.00	—	PE10.48	-4.78	-90.3	—
12	Mishani Glaze	Olivia Kendal	Donna Stanbridge	13	34.00	1.16	400.00	—	PE38.15	-76.05	-97.0	—
10	Final Voyage	Les Tilley	Alyssa & Troy Sweeney	3	8.50	—	15.00	—	PE7.94	-6.56	-97.8	—
3	What Did You Say	Brandon Lerena	James Moore	1	11.00	—	22.00	—	PE10.48	-5.43	-118.9	—
18	Costa Catori	—	Debra Corbett	18	31.00	—	380.00	—	PE35.69	-2.57	-974.5	—
16	Gallery Master	—	Julie Harris	12	18.00	—	600.00	—	PE22.22	-4.35	-2609.9	—

column glossary

confidence: The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
#: runner number assigned by punters.
horse: name (links out to punters.com.au).
jockey / trainer: connections; — if not yet known.
b: barrier (gate) number.
punters SP: final starting price from punters. — for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes.
live back: best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
live lay: best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
live LTP: last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair. — if nothing has traded yet.
model $: model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
edge pp: percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
EV %: expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
suggest: BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.

Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.