Kilcoy R7

Exchange Hotel Kilcoy Bm65 Handicap · 1200m · BM65, Handicap · Soft · jumps 2026-06-30 06:05 UTC · market 1.259538850

model confidence medium 0.56

#	horse	jockey	trainer	b	punters SP	live back	live lay	live LTP	model $	edge pp	EV %	suggest
12	Fortysecondstreet	Steph Tierney	Stuart Kendrick	2	10.00	—	8.40	6.00	PE17.51	+5.13	+42.6	LAY
6	Speed Map	Archie McColm	Ben Ahrens	4	3.00	3.00	3.15	3.15	3.58	+1.54	+4.7	—
2	Grand Crusader	Amelia Heinrich	Jay Bellamy	6	4.40	—	—	—	PE5.60	—	—	—
14	Li'l Rex	—	David Murphy	13	51.00	—	—	—	PE77.74	—	—	—
3	Big Boy George	Micheal Hellyer	Sharon Croxford	7	29.00	29.00	48.00	30.00	48.81	-0.17	-8.1	—
9	Vorkuta	Frederick Larson	Tony & Maddysen Sears	5	4.40	4.40	5.80	—	5.65	-1.92	-10.9	—
5	Mr Wandji	Samantha Pointon	Tom Dougall	11	11.00	16.00	34.00	—	PE17.51	-0.50	-17.2	—
10	Ceekay's Choice	Harrison Shaw	Matt Kropp	1	8.80	8.80	15.50	—	10.59	-1.78	-24.3	—
4	Jemeldi	Brandon Lerena	Philip Minter	8	6.20	6.20	10.00	—	8.43	-2.78	-27.5	—
13	Capital Cee	Kayla Johnston	John Johnston	9	151.00	75.00	820.00	210.00	PE241.83	-0.92	-72.0	—

column glossary

confidence: The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
#: runner number assigned by punters.
horse: name (links out to punters.com.au).
jockey / trainer: connections; — if not yet known.
b: barrier (gate) number.
punters SP: final starting price from punters. — for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes.
live back: best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
live lay: best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
live LTP: last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair. — if nothing has traded yet.
model $: model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
edge pp: percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
EV %: expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
suggest: BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.

Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.