Kilcoy R6

Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Maiden Plate · 1200m · Maiden, Set Weights · Soft · jumps 2026-06-30 05:25 UTC · market 1.259538841

model confidence medium 0.54

#	horse	jockey	trainer	b	punters SP	live back	live lay	live LTP	model $	edge pp	EV %	suggest
14	Hannah's Astar	Frederick Larson	David Kropp	4	34.00	110.00	730.00	—	PE73.47	+0.45	+34.9	—
1	Bombus	Harrison Shaw	Sharon Croxford	8	3.45	3.45	3.80	3.45	4.79	+3.47	+12.8	LAY
2	Express Star	Olivia Kendal	Donna Stanbridge	1	3.45	3.45	3.90	3.90	4.79	+2.83	+10.7	LAY
4	Scion	Les Tilley	Alyssa & Troy Sweeney	15	7.00	12.00	24.00	11.00	PE10.01	+1.73	+8.9	—
6	Outages	Karl Zechner	Jake Capewell	6	10.00	25.00	75.00	—	PE20.77	+0.83	+8.8	—
5	Yonaka	Nathan Thomas	Laura Anderson	3	12.00	14.50	30.00	—	PE34.07	+0.08	+2.2	—
18	Kaipaki Road	—	Paul Jenkins	12	26.00	—	—	—	PE50.47	—	—	—
11	Next Exit	Brandon Lerena	Stuart Kendrick	7	2.78	2.78	4.40	2.76	3.38	-5.00	-23.0	—
16	Goodfella Finch	Micheal Hellyer	Deborah Handford	9	26.00	40.00	180.00	—	PE73.47	-1.13	-50.9	—
19	Silver Streak	—	Brendan Jones	2	26.00	40.00	120.00	—	PE73.47	-1.13	-50.9	—
15	Boho Belle	Kenji Yoshida	Deborah Handford	5	41.00	—	520.00	—	PE73.47	-1.19	-617.6	—
3	Savea	Bailie Baker	Ben Ahrens	10	21.00	—	380.00	—	PE46.13	-1.93	-733.6	—
17	Endless Elliegance	Kayla Johnston	John Johnston	17	31.00	—	630.00	—	PE73.47	-1.22	-767.3	—

column glossary

confidence: The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
#: runner number assigned by punters.
horse: name (links out to punters.com.au).
jockey / trainer: connections; — if not yet known.
b: barrier (gate) number.
punters SP: final starting price from punters. — for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes.
live back: best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
live lay: best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
live LTP: last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair. — if nothing has traded yet.
model $: model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
edge pp: percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
EV %: expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
suggest: BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.

Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.