Kilcoy R3

Kilcoy Global Foods Maiden Plate · 1500m · Maiden, Set Weights · Soft · jumps 2026-06-30 03:40 UTC · market 1.259538814

model confidence medium 0.46

#	horse	jockey	trainer	b	punters SP	live back	live lay	live LTP	model $	edge pp	EV %	suggest
1	Brass Band	Tiffani Brooker	Renita Beaton	2	5.50	—	—	6.40	PE4.81	—	—	—
2	Moana Nui	Paul Hamblin	Cath Hamblin	10	14.00	—	—	40.00	PE21.29	—	—	—
3	Mud 'N' Blood	Dale Smith	Michael Lakey	7	18.00	—	—	580.00	PE21.29	—	—	—
4	Heroic Villen	Les Tilley	Taylah Mackinnon	9	12.00	—	—	32.00	PE10.05	—	—	—
5	Teddy Too Cheap	Micheal Hellyer	Jack Bruce	4	8.50	—	—	2.00	PE7.99	—	—	—
6	Cairo Queen	Archie McColm	Michael Lakey	5	4.20	—	—	3.00	PE3.39	—	—	—
7	Mistemba	Bailie Baker	John Thomas	1	15.00	—	—	32.00	PE20.85	—	—	—
8	Our Sassy Princess	Nozi Tomizawa	Shane Essery	3	19.00	—	—	32.00	PE21.29	—	—	—
9	Picka Poppy	Kayla Johnston	Greg Wright	6	21.00	—	—	520.00	PE34.20	—	—	—
10	Winning Flame	R O'sullivan	Brendan Jones	8	26.00	—	—	32.00	PE36.56	—	—	—
11	O'reilly's Shout	—	Brian & Matt Costello	11	26.00	—	—	—	PE36.56	—	—	—

column glossary

confidence: The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
#: runner number assigned by punters.
horse: name (links out to punters.com.au).
jockey / trainer: connections; — if not yet known.
b: barrier (gate) number.
punters SP: final starting price from punters. — for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes.
live back: best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
live lay: best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
live LTP: last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair. — if nothing has traded yet.
model $: model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
edge pp: percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
EV %: expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
suggest: BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.

Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.