Kilcoy R2
model confidence
medium
0.47
| # | horse | live back | live lay | model $ | EV % | suggest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Switch The Stars no live | — | — | PE2.92 | — | — |
| 3 | Howdoyouzou no live | — | — | PE5.11 | — | — |
| 4 | Before Anyone Else no live | — | — | PE4.29 | — | — |
| 5 | Jeans no live | — | — | PE20.46 | — | — |
| 6 | Tinkerbella no live | — | — | PE20.03 | — | — |
| 8 | Copper Star no live | — | — | PE20.46 | — | — |
| 10 | Mishani Aztec no live | — | — | PE20.03 | — | — |
| 11 | Mishani Steller no live | — | — | PE32.86 | — | — |
column glossary
- confidence
- The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
- #
- runner number assigned by punters.
- horse
- name (links out to punters.com.au).
- jockey / trainer
- connections;
—if not yet known. - b
- barrier (gate) number.
- punters SP
- final starting price from punters.
—for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes. - live back
- best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
- live lay
- best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
- live LTP
- last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair.
—if nothing has traded yet. - model $
- model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
- edge pp
- percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
- EV %
- expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
- suggest
- BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.
Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.