Taree R8
model confidence
medium
0.49
| # | horse | live back | live lay | model $ | EV % | suggest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Too Darn Finesse | — | 7.20 | PE21.14 | +56.4 | LAY |
| 9 | Smashing Nova | — | 8.80 | PE9.98 | +2.8 | — |
| 3 | Executive Decision | — | — | PE48.41 | — | — |
| 4 | Golden Copper | — | — | PE16.50 | — | — |
| 5 | Shoutaboutit | — | — | PE7.94 | — | — |
| 7 | Take The Jackpot | — | — | PE33.96 | — | — |
| 10 | Whispering Rupert | — | — | PE73.23 | — | — |
| 11 | Salma's Star | — | — | PE21.14 | — | — |
| 13 | Mane Character | — | — | PE73.23 | — | — |
| 14 | Incantress | — | — | PE45.98 | — | — |
| 15 | Ardonaugh | — | — | PE73.23 | — | — |
| 16 | Maximum Ride | — | — | PE45.98 | — | — |
| 17 | Nikody's Diego | — | — | PE73.23 | — | — |
| 18 | Pride Of Lanka | — | — | PE73.23 | — | — |
| 19 | Rebel One | — | — | PE— | — | — |
| 8 | I'm Super | 4.60 | 5.20 | 4.78 | -11.3 | — |
| 1 | Highly Tempted | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.32 | -13.5 | — |
| 6 | Smart Jazz | 24.00 | 230.00 | PE36.31 | -40.2 | — |
| 20 | Golden Galaxy | 110.00 | 1000.00 | PE227.81 | -56.5 | — |
| 2 | Manwe | — | 600.00 | PE36.31 | -1562.3 | — |
column glossary
- confidence
- The badge next to the race title (high medium low) blends three signals: (a) sharpness — how peaked the model's predictions are (a flat 1/N across runners = no information = 0); (b) price quality — fraction of runners with a real live Betfair market (PE-fallback counts at 0.5); (c) form coverage — fraction of runners with a prior race on record. Hover the badge to see the breakdown. Treat low-confidence races as informational — the model is making weak claims.
- #
- runner number assigned by punters.
- horse
- name (links out to punters.com.au).
- jockey / trainer
- connections;
—if not yet known. - b
- barrier (gate) number.
- punters SP
- final starting price from punters.
—for pre-race runners; populated after the race finishes. - live back
- best price available to BACK on Betfair right now. If you click BACK at this price, the bet is matched immediately.
- live lay
- best price available to LAY on Betfair right now. To lay, you accept this price (and the liability that comes with it).
- live LTP
- last traded price — the price of the most recent matched bet on Betfair.
—if nothing has traded yet. - model $
- model's fair decimal-odds estimate — the price at which the bet would be break-even before commission. Calibrated against realised wins via the v2 LightGBM ensemble + isotonic recalibration, summed-to-1 across the race. To trade profitably you need a live back HIGHER than this (for BACK) or a live lay LOWER than this (for LAY), with margin to cover commission. A PE badge means the live Betfair market wasn't tradeable yet so the model used the punters Edge price (the broker's fair-odds estimate) as input. A ? badge means we had no market price at all — predictions are uninformed.
- edge pp
- percentage points above the commission-adjusted break-even threshold at the price we'd actually trade at (live back for BACK, live lay for LAY). Must clear +2pp before a side is suggested.
- EV %
- expected return on $1 staked, assuming the model's win probability is the true probability. After 5% Betfair AU commission on net wins.
- suggest
- BACK = back at the live back price (model thinks horse is MORE likely than the price implies, with enough edge after commission). LAY = lay at the live lay price (model thinks horse is LESS likely than the price implies). — = no edge above the threshold; stand aside. Wide spreads usually produce STAND because both sides cost too much.
Not financial advice. Bet sizing isn't shown — fractional Kelly at ≤10% of full Kelly is sane, with a per-bet cap and liquidity check before sending anything. The model is recalibrated each night by the daily pipeline; it lags new horses and unusual track conditions.